2015 “Mild” El Niño to Bring Dry Spells in the Philippines — PAGASA


Possible dry spell scenario
Possible dry spell scenario


The weather bureau PAGASA announced,  that a “mild” El Niño has developed but has not entered the Philippines yet.


El Niño January 2015 temperature
Globally averaged temperature for January 2015 was the second highest

Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed that the globally average temperature over land and ocean January 2015 ranked as the second warmest temperature ever recorded. Recently, the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean has climbed up to warmer than normal and the air movement above the equatorial Pacific shows an increase in westerly wind anomalies.


El Niño at the Pacific Ocean
El Niño forms at the central and eastern Pacific Ocean

Weather models indicated that there is 50-60% chance that El Niño will develop in the third quarter (July to September), which is the start of the summer season in the Northern hemisphere, and to reach 80% potential from October to December this year. The NOAA forecasters issued an El Niño Advisory to countries surrounding the Pacific after monitoring the phenomenon for almost a year.



Warm water forms at the Pacific Ocean
El Niño forms at the central and eastern Pacific Ocean

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and its team project Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) are gearing up for the impact of El Niño 2015 across the country. They will work round the clock with other government agencies (DOH, DOA, DSWD, DND, DILG, DENR, DOE, DPWH, MMDA, and other local authorities) that will depend on their forecast, guidelines, recommendations and implementation when it comes to lessening the effect of the phenomenon. They must ensure the welfare of the Filipinos during the course of the dry spell and safety of the residents near coastal and low-lying areas during the typhoon season. The government expects “erratic” rainfall pattern in different regions, especially on the Eastern coast of the country, with the onset of the rainy season this July.



PAGASA forecast on the rainy season
Onset of rainy season forecast.


The weather bureau PAGASA likewise expects greater impact on livelihood and agriculture in Mindanao especially during the summer season.

as well as for the supply of water and electricity in the region. Heat-stroke and skin diseases are more likely to affect the elders and young children. And with the spike in demand for electricity plus the looming power plant maintenance shutdown, rates are likely to increase and power suppliers might implement rotational brown out in some parts of the country.


El Niño at the Pacific Ocean
Warm water moves east leaving Australia & Indonesia dry.

Australia, Indonesia and India are expecting drier conditions that might affect their food production and spark wild fires. Although the El Niño phenomenon is a warm temperature on a body of water, it could deliver destructive hurricanes or ‘super’ typhoons in small island nations and countries in the Pacific region namely: Hawaii, Guam, Saipan, Palau, the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, the west coast of the US and South America; and up to the Gulf of Mexico.


Super Typhoon Haiyan/ Yolanda in Leyte
El Niño could bring Super Typhoon like Haiyan/ Yolanda

Remember, El Niño did not push through last 2014. Now it’s on it’s way singing “Don’t Rain on My Parade!



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